Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 11.952478 13.677267 15.533860 17.677301 20.079932 22.686207 25.723501
2025-07-20 9.441288 11.787316 14.507455 17.879631 21.931963 26.628056 32.464255
2025-07-27 8.055573 10.641271 13.785857 17.864007 22.982201 29.159693 37.142967
2025-08-03 6.893665 9.588322 13.010488 17.632022 23.660379 31.201501 41.284941
2025-08-10 6.099282 8.872947 12.529992 17.643197 24.535171 33.420429 45.644515
2025-08-17 5.505995 8.345875 12.220210 17.809756 25.568314 35.842457 50.337581
2025-08-24 4.948341 7.797644 11.811599 17.774539 26.279671 37.823650 54.489623
2025-08-31 4.440440 7.262462 11.361452 17.621698 26.782163 39.505304 58.270672
2025-09-07 4.073585 6.896946 11.115631 17.724858 27.624588 41.665197 62.777864
2025-09-14 3.854167 6.734666 11.150845 18.230403 29.059384 44.707572 68.645361
2025-09-21 3.498401 6.318173 10.758615 18.048602 29.442918 46.226256 72.354620
2025-09-28 3.045745 5.697042 9.992173 17.222361 28.781249 46.149309 73.683223
2025-10-05 2.888524 5.567654 10.013969 17.659137 30.116227 49.149009 79.782937
2025-10-12 2.721692 5.405795 9.968675 17.980706 31.282432 51.941029 85.687712
2025-10-19 2.505432 5.132679 9.710552 17.923284 31.820526 53.764694 90.150926
2025-10-26 2.284660 4.829071 9.374127 17.704993 32.072160 55.134150 93.942256
2025-11-02 2.120319 4.615760 9.178500 17.711188 32.688139 57.097196 98.734700
2025-11-09 1.994230 4.464362 9.081437 17.880085 33.580821 59.534730 104.370708
2025-11-16 1.851325 4.265137 8.879759 17.844128 34.110316 61.386388 109.109669
2025-11-23 1.706394 4.047180 8.625048 17.690968 34.418575 62.870665 113.283849
2025-11-30 1.604762 3.910035 8.514011 17.794414 35.181488 65.141612 118.839197
2025-12-07 1.556015 3.882249 8.614381 18.301747 36.694343 68.746009 126.765230
2025-12-14 1.436863 3.687255 8.365782 18.119304 36.928601 70.140597 130.959620